Analytics Overview
12 games tracked · 12 active recommendations
Total Games
12
+EV Bets
10
High Confidence
10
Trap Lines
0
🧮 Live EV Calculator
EV
Implied Prob
Quarter Kelly
Edge
🔬 Vig Removal Calculator
Vig:
Overround:
| # | Decimal Odds | Implied Prob | True Prob (vig-free) | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🎯 Top EV Bets
| Game | Bet | Odds | Model Prob | Implied Prob | EV | Conf | Kelly | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW @ MIN | away · ml away | 4.57 | 32.7% | 22.9% | +49.4% | 78% | 3.5% | High Value |
| UTA @ SAC | home spread · spread home | 1.86 | 78.9% | 82.6% | +46.7% | 97% | 5.0% | High Value |
| LAC @ DAL | away · ml away | 3.93 | 35.6% | 26.7% | +40.1% | 77% | 3.4% | High Value |
| MIL @ CLE | away · ml away | 4.57 | 30.5% | 22.9% | +39.2% | 84% | 2.7% | High Value |
| NYK @ BOS | away · ml away | 4.57 | 30.0% | 22.9% | +37.4% | 85% | 2.6% | High Value |
| DEN @ OKC | home spread · spread home | 1.91 | 71.3% | 76.0% | +36.3% | 90% | 5.0% | High Value |
| PHX @ LAL | away · ml away | 4.01 | 33.5% | 26.2% | +34.3% | 81% | 2.9% | High Value |
| HOU @ MEM | away · ml away | 3.93 | 33.7% | 26.7% | +32.3% | 82% | 2.8% | High Value |
| NOP @ SAS | away spread · spread away | 1.96 | 67.3% | 62.0% | +31.9% | 85% | 5.0% | High Value |
| MIA @ IND | away · ml away | 4.01 | 32.4% | 26.2% | +29.9% | 84% | 2.5% | High Value |
How analytics work:
Win probability is estimated using a blend of ELO ratings (50% weight), win-rate record (25%), and net efficiency rating (25%).
EV = (Model Probability × Net Odds) − (1 − Model Probability).
Kelly Criterion sizing uses ¼ Kelly capped at 5% of bankroll.
All probabilities are vig-free (bookmaker margin removed).
This is a statistical model, not a predictor — always use proper bankroll management.