NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
43-39
ELO 1535
@
Upcoming
Thursday, September 17 · 01:38 AM UTC
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
22-60
ELO 1350
+31.9% EV
High Value
Current Odds Updated 15:38 UTC
Moneyline
SAS
2.76
38.0% true prob
vs
NOP
1.69
62.0% true prob
Spread / Handicap
SAS
5.5
1.91
vs
NOP
-5.5
1.96
Total (O/U)
Over 227.5
1.92
|
Under 227.5
1.95
🤖 AI Analysis
Likely Winner
New Orleans Pelicans
67.3% model probability
NOP
SAS
Best Bet
away spread · spread away
1.96
Expected Value
+31.9%
Confidence
85%
Kelly (¼)
5.0%
Risk Level
Medium
Model gives New Orleans Pelicans (away spread) a 31.9% EV edge at 85.0% confidence based on ELO, win-rate, and net-rating signals.
💎 High Value
📊 Detailed Analysis
Pace & Scoring
Expected pace: 99.4 possessions/48min (moderate). Projected combined score: ~228 pts.
Market Edge
Model sees 5.3% edge for New Orleans Pelicans. ELO differential: -185 pts (San Antonio Spurs lower).
Risk Factors
No significant risk factors identified.
Team Comparison
SAS
ELO Rating
NOP
1350
1535
SAS
Points/Game
NOP
110
113
SAS
Points Allowed
NOP
120
112
SAS
Net Rating
NOP
-9
0
SAS
Pace
NOP
100
99