MIA
Miami Heat
40-42
ELO 1520
@
Upcoming
Tuesday, September 15 · 07:38 PM UTC
IND
Indiana Pacers
50-32
ELO 1600
+29.9% EV
High Value
Current Odds Updated 15:38 UTC
Moneyline
IND
1.44
73.3% true prob
vs
MIA
3.95
26.7% true prob
Spread / Handicap
IND
-3.9
1.91
vs
MIA
3.9
1.96
Total (O/U)
Over 232.5
1.89
|
Under 232.5
2.04
Odds Movement History
🤖 AI Analysis
Likely Winner
Indiana Pacers
32.4% model probability
MIA
IND
Best Bet
away · ml away
4.01
Expected Value
+29.9%
Confidence
84%
Kelly (¼)
2.5%
Risk Level
Medium
Model gives Miami Heat (away) a 29.9% EV edge at 84.0% confidence based on ELO, win-rate, and net-rating signals.
💎 High Value
📊 Detailed Analysis
Pace & Scoring
Expected pace: 100.7 possessions/48min (moderate). Projected combined score: ~232 pts.
Market Edge
Model sees 6.3% edge for Miami Heat. ELO differential: 80 pts (Indiana Pacers higher).
Risk Factors
No significant risk factors identified.
Team Comparison
IND
ELO Rating
MIA
1600
1520
IND
Points/Game
MIA
123
111
IND
Points Allowed
MIA
119
112
IND
Net Rating
MIA
4
-1
IND
Pace
MIA
104
98